国际农产品价格如何影响了中国农产品价格?

本文使用月度数据考察国际农产品价格是否影响中国农产品价格,以及影响程度和可能的影响机制。在控制了其他影响因素的条件下,本文证实了国际农产品价格对国内价格具有经济意义上的显著影响,各种农产品的国内价格对相同产品国际价格的反应程度存在较大差异,玉米、大米和大豆价格的国际价格弹性介于0.20到0.36之间,小麦的国际价格弹性为0.05左右,国内外农产品市场间高度的整合关系主要是通过国际贸易建立的。中国在未来为保持粮价稳定需要加大对农业的扶持力度,加强国内农产品储备,合理地对农产品贸易进行管制,建立农产品价格预警机制,并通过财政补贴等手段平抑因国际价格波动而带来的国内农产品价格上涨。     

Wages and prices: Are workers fully compensated for cost of living differences?

This paper investigates the equilibrium relationship between wages and prices across labor markets. Of central interest is the extent to which workers receive higher wages to compensate for differences in the cost of living. According to the spatial equilibrium hypothesis, the utility of homogenous workers should be equal across labor markets. This implies that controlling for amenity differences across areas, the elasticity between wages and the general price level across areas should equal one, at least under certain conditions. I test this hypothesis and find that the predicted relationship holds when housing prices are measured by rents and the general price level is instrumented to account for measurement error. When housing prices are measured by housing values, however, the wage-price elasticity is significantly less than one, even using instrumental variables. Rents reflect the price paid for housing per unit of time and are arguably the superior measure. Thus, findings in this essay provide support for the full compensation hypothesis. These findings also have important implications for researchers estimating the implicit prices of amenities or ranking the quality of life across areas.     

柳州市房地产信贷规模与房地产价格关系的实证分析

本文在对柳州市房地产市场发展的信贷支持进行定性分析的基础上,利用2003年1季度至2009年4季度的季度数据,运用多变量协整分析技术对房地产信贷与柳州房地产市场价格波动之间的关系进行实证检验,结果表明柳州房地产信贷规模变动是房地产价格变动的主要原因之一,但房地产信贷变化不是对房地产市场状况的反映。     

The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom

When house prices are expected to rise, the representative house mover has an incentive to secure his purchase price (i.e. exchange contracts) on the ‘new’ house before exchanging contracts on the sale price on his ‘old’ house. If all house-movers adopt this stance, the imbalance between buyers and sellers causes a self-fulfilling speculative price bubble. Transactions costs do not represent a barrier to such speculation in the house market, as such costs can be considered as being sunk costs for first-time buyers and owner-occupiers intending to move for non-speculative reasons. This idea is formalised and empirical evidence is presented which suggests that speculation is a significant determinant of house prices in the United Kingdom.     

Estimating Firm Behavior under Rationing: a Panel Data Study of the Chinese Manufacturing Industry

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of rationing on firm behavior. A virtual price approach is adopted to derive the rationed elasticities of variable input demands and output supply under a translog profit function. To illustrate the difference between the rationed and unrationed elasticities, we conduct an analysis using a firm-level annual survey data of China over the period 1985–88. Our estimation results indicate that the values of most elasticities would have been affected significantly if the government had imposed rationing on material inputs. The behavior of Chinese firms would have been seriously distorted in a complicated way. The firms would have over-responded to market signals in making some of their input or output decisions and, at the same time, might have under-reacted, or would have not changed their reaction, in making the other input or output decisions, under a rationing regime.     

上网电价波动对中国火电发电量的影响——基于协整检验和误差修正模型的实证分析

2003年以来,中国电煤价格快速上涨,"市场煤"与"计划电"的矛盾冲突日益激烈。火电企业普遍选择"停机限发",进而引发全国范围内的"电荒"频频出现。本文基于协整检验和误差修正模型,利用2003-2010年的季度数据,研究了上网电价、供电煤耗等因素对火电产业发电量的影响。结果表明,上网电价是影响火电发电量的最重要因素,季度上网电价每提高1%,火电季度发电量就提高13.42%;即季度上网电价提高1分/千瓦时,火电季度发电量就约提高2416亿千瓦时;代表技术进步的供电煤耗每降低1%,火电季度发电量就增加0.767%;主营业务成本每提高1%,火电季度发电量就降低0.53%;而总资产则对火电发电量具有微小的负向影响。对此本文提出了适当小幅快频上调上网电价、深入推行节能降耗等政策建议。     

The price of protein

The paper examines micro-level price dynamics of the major dietary sources of protein in India, based on demand-supply fundamentals. As levels of affluence increase, the demand for proteins increases. But some categories show a long-term decline in availability, others show volatile growth due to structural imbalance between demand and supply, raising the prospect of price surges. Persistent price increases in commodities for which there are no effective substitutes raise wages and the potential rate of inflation over a period of time, warranting a monetary tightening. To the extent diets are affected human resources are weakened. Improving the agricultural supply response is urgent.     

资产价格与货币政策困境:“善意忽视”能解决问题么?

此次全球性金融危机重新引起了学者们对资产价格与货币政策的讨论。在对各方观点进行综述和评价的基础上,本文认为,对资产价格善意忽视不仅不能解决问题,反而有可能导致更大的损失。实践中,对于资产价格的剧烈波动,中央银行应该审时度势,逆经济风向行事。     

房地产调控要坚持制度创新

房产已是一种特殊商品,房价暴涨,实质是社会经济发展与市场经济制度之间存在着不相适应的矛盾。现有的诸多主张和办法并没有从制度上找到房价暴涨的原因,所采取的措施还不能有效地抑制房价。市场经济发展出现的问题只有通过制度改革和创新来解决。本文主张设立政府投资和控制下的商品房期货交易有限公司,立即向市场抛售5年期期房券,以满足市场对投资产品的需求,并抑制和调控房产的价格。